OPEC+ moves to set 2027 production baselines

The 2027 baselines, once finalized, are expected to guide production policy after the current round of cuts expires.
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RIYADH: OPEC+ announced on Wednesday that it will establish a framework to determine new oil production baselines for 2027, marking a significant step in its long-term planning, said an official statement.

The alliance — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia—has been negotiating revised production baselines for several years. These baselines serve as reference points from which member states adjust their output levels.

According to the statement issued following the group’s meeting, said it had tasked the OPEC Secretariat with developing a mechanism to assess each country’s maximum production capacity. These assessments will form the basis for 2027 production targets across all member nations.

Since 2022, the group has implemented three tiers of output cuts. Two remain in place through the end of 2026, while the third is being gradually phased out by eight participating countries. No changes were made to the group’s current production policy at Wednesday’s session.

Due to the sensitive nature of the discussions, all sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

The 2027 baselines, once finalized, are expected to guide production policy after the current round of cuts expires.

Oil prices, which dipped below $60 per barrel in April—the lowest level in four years—following OPEC+’s decision to accelerate May output and amid trade tensions triggered by US tariffs, have since rebounded to around $65.